Recently, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a professor at Tsinghua University, and a new energy power system developer, shared his views on the theme of "New Energy Vehicles and New Energy Transformation" at the Tsinghua PBC Green Finance Lecture and CCTV Finance's "Confidence Ahead, Linking Vitality-2023 Year-End Lecture".
Recently, Ouyang Minggao, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a professor at Tsinghua University, and a new energy power system developer, shared his views on the theme of "New Energy Vehicles and New Energy Transformation" at the Tsinghua PBC Green Finance Lecture and CCTV Finance's "Confidence Ahead, Linking Vitality-2023 Year-End Lecture". He said that the vigorous development of the new energy vehicle industry will promote the fourth industrial revolution with greening and intelligence as the important. In the next two or three decades, the automobile industry, information industry, transportation equipment industry, and energy and chemical related industries will undergo a major change that has not been seen in a century. Against this background, five trillion-level industries will be triggered. Support China's economic transformation and form a huge and multi-faceted industrial driving capacity.
In addition to the trillion-dollar new energy vehicle industry, it will also drive four trillion-dollar industries, namely, power batteries will give rise to new energy storage industries, fuel cell vehicles will give rise to green hydrogen energy industries, new energy vehicles will give rise to transportation electrification, autonomous driving and smart energy systems.
New energy is generally divided into two systems - power system and power system. The power system comes from new energy vehicles; the power system is the energy and power system that we are now upgrading. In the future, the new energy technology system will be integrated and developed in a coordinated manner, and eventually form a new new energy industry, including silicon energy (photovoltaic and power electronics), energy storage (physical and chemical energy storage), hydrogen energy (green hydrogen from renewable energy) and intelligence (vehicle-grid interaction, energy Internet). Among them, it is important to solve the energy storage problem, otherwise both the physical power grid and the virtual power plant will face volatility problems. There are three key parts to solving the energy storage problem. The first is green hydrogen energy storage in hydrogen energy, the second is electrochemical energy storage power station energy storage, and the third is the distributed and aggregated intelligent energy storage of on-board batteries as energy storage, so as to improve the flexibility of the power system. And these require batteries and hydrogen energy technologies for new energy vehicles. Now that new energy vehicles have developed, large-scale industrialization has entered the homes of ordinary people, so new energy vehicles can be used to promote new energy reforms.
ONE
China's new energy vehicles are blooming and a hundred schools of thought are contending. In China, the era of new energy vehicles with a hundred flowers blooming and a hundred schools of thought are already opening. In 2023, my country's automobile production and sales will reach 30.161 million and 30.094 million respectively, up 11.6% and 12% year-on-year, setting a new record. In the first quarter of 2023, China's automobile exports approached one million, ranking first in the world's automobile exports. The development of new energy vehicles is particularly eye-catching. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 9.587 million and 9.495 million respectively, up 35.8% and 37.9% year-on-year, and the market share reached 31.6%. It has ranked first in the world for 9 consecutive years.
It can be seen from the above data that China's new energy vehicles have truly overtaken others in the global industrial layout and completed the counterattack of new energy vehicles. China is also promoting the rapid development of the world's new energy vehicle industry, and the new energy vehicle market has huge potential in the future. With the development and popularization of new energy vehicles, a new industrial chain is taking shape. It is expected that by 2030, global new energy vehicle sales will reach 20 million units, and the total output value will reach 10 trillion US dollars.
TWO
The development of new energy vehicles has driven the development of our power batteries, and battery technology continues to make breakthroughs. In terms of technological breakthroughs, China's typical achievements in new energy vehicle technological innovation are at the forefront of the world, including power battery safety technology systems, CTP blade batteries and Kirin batteries, ultra-fast charging technology, and low-cost long-range lithium iron phosphate electric car platform technology , pure electric plug-in hybrid cars, battery-swapping heavy-duty electric truck complete set of technologies, energy hybrid fuel cell power systems, etc. Electric vehicles initially had a cruising range of more than 100 kilometers, but now they generally have a cruising range of more than 500 kilometers or even 1,000 kilometers. Super fast charging technology allows electric vehicles to be "full of energy" in a short time. At present, 4C+ fast charging has become the mainstream route, from 10%-80% SOC, charging time is 11-15 minutes. It can be charged for 400 kilometers in 10 minutes, which solves battery life anxiety. In the future, we will also make breakthroughs in a series of key technologies, including solid-state lithium batteries, solid-state oxide and perovskite batteries.
Batteries gave rise to the energy storage industry. More than 90% of the energy storage industry chain is produced in China, and 70% of the world's power batteries are also produced in China. More than 94% of the energy storage field relies on battery energy storage technology. Through technological innovation, we have successfully extended the battery that could only store 2 hours to 10 hours, achieving a 5-fold increase.
Based on the economic comparison, the mainstream energy storage system in China is predicted. According to the national plan, by 2030, 120 million kW of pumped storage will be built, which will play the role of medium- and long-term energy storage for a long period of time. After 2030, facing the proportion of intermittent renewable energy generation exceeding 25%, three types of energy storage technologies will be mainly adopted: long-term large-scale (more than 20 hours, daytime and cross-seasonal), medium-term medium-scale (5-20 hours) and short-term distributed small-scale (0-5 hours). Among them, the long cycle mainly adopts hydrogen energy, supplemented by liquid flow batteries, compressed air energy storage, etc. the medium cycle will be dominated by battery energy storage power stations (accounting for more than 70%), and the rest will be supported by pumped storage, compressed air, liquid flow batteries, etc. the short cycle will be dominated by vehicle-grid interactive energy storage (accounting for more than 80%), and the rest will be supplemented by flywheel energy storage, supercapacitors and electrochemical centralized energy storage.
The new energy storage is basically lithium iron phosphate batteries. Looking into the future, wind power and photovoltaic power will become larger and larger. At the same time, energy storage will increase. The global industrial scale has a potential of 100 billion in the future.
THREE
Hydrogen fuel cell technology is also driving the development of hydrogen production, storage, transportation and hydrogenation. The hydrogen energy industry chain is long, with many links and widespread applications, and has broad prospects in the fields of transportation and energy. From a global perspective, my country is one of the countries with a relatively complete fuel cell vehicle industry chain. In recent years, the relevant technical level of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles has been greatly improved, the hydrogen consumption per 100 kilometers has dropped from 26 kilograms to 7.1 kilograms, and the cruising range has increased from 100 kilometers to 500 kilometers, which has promoted more than 60 vehicle manufacturers to launch fuel cell vehicles and spawned more than 70 fuel cell engine-related companies. With hydrogen transportation as the forerunner, from fuel cell buses to light rail vehicles in Foshan to refrigerated trucks in Beijing, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles have become economical.
In addition, hydrogen energy demonstration is expanding to multiple fields, from hydrogen energy combined heat and cold supply system, peak load regulation system, hydrogen energy storage system to hydrogen energy steelmaking, hydrogen energy ship, hydrogen energy drone. In fact, as an important part of the national energy system and an important carrier for energy-consuming terminals to achieve green and low-carbon development, hydrogen energy is the key development direction of strategic emerging industries. Fuel cell vehicles, as the leading field of hydrogen energy application, have become an emerging industry that the world pays close attention to and competes for.
With the development of renewable energy such as wind power and photovoltaics, the production of green hydrogen with green electricity will further promote the development of hydrogen energy and fuel cell vehicle industries. With the gradual industrialization of fuel cell vehicles, hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogenation, etc. will be greatly developed, which will drive the development of the entire hydrogen energy industry. That is, hydrogen energy vehicles are the forerunners, driving the development of the entire green hydrogen energy industry chain, and the hydrogen energy industry is a larger strategic industry. The global hydrogen energy output is expected to reach 660 million tons by 2050. It is not only used in transportation, but also in electricity, construction, industrial raw materials, etc. The hydrogen energy industry chain is a very long industry chain with a large industrial cluster, and also an industrial cluster with a potential of 10 trillion yuan.
FOUR
New energy vehicles give rise to the electrification of transportation. We will have electric airplanes, electric flying cars, electric boats, electric trains, electric agricultural machinery, electric special vehicles, and electrified roads. The second is that new power batteries give rise to new energy storage industries. The energy storage industry is very popular now, but in fact, according to statistics, 94.5% of this new energy storage is lithium batteries. In fact, this lithium battery is the same as the power battery in our car, and the energy storage is still lithium iron phosphate battery. Our electric vehicles interact with the network through two-way charging piles, that is, they can be charged and discharged, and the on-board battery can also be used as energy storage. How big is this energy storage? If we connect 300 million vehicles in a distributed manner, for example, one car is equipped with 60 degrees of electricity, then 300 million vehicles will be nearly 20 billion degrees of electricity. What is the concept of 20 billion degrees of electricity? It is the total electricity consumed in China today, so this is a huge virtual power plant. Mobile machinery electrification: electric trucks, ships, trains, airplanes, electric agricultural machinery, operating robots, etc., with an output value exceeding 10 trillion.
FIVE
The further development of new energy electric vehicles is intelligent new energy electric vehicles. Our new energy smart cars are not only smart terminals but also smart energy storage methods. Our electric vehicles also need smart manufacturing. So it will promote intelligent transformation, including smart manufacturing, autonomous driving, and smart energy. Now the intelligent cockpit of electric vehicles, as well as the Internet of Vehicles to assist driving and other functions, are gradually automating electric vehicles. In the future, there will be autonomous driving, and even unmanned driving. At the same time, just like mobile phones are mobile information networks, electric vehicles will be mobile energy Internet in the future. Because the batteries on each electric vehicle can be used for energy storage and vehicle-network interaction, a large number of automobile energy storages are linked together to form a mobile energy Internet and distributed virtual power plants.
In this process, the automation technology transformation of the automotive industry has attracted almost all information and Internet manufacturers to participate in the smart car industry, which is also a big outlet. I want to emphasize that with the increase in the number of electric motors, our city's distribution network will be overwhelmed. If everyone charges in an unordered manner and goes home to charge at night, the power grid will not be able to bear it. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the vehicle-network interaction function of electric vehicles to make electric vehicles truly a smart energy terminal.
We expect that the large-scale popularization of electric vehicles will bring about a smart energy ecosystem based on vehicle-grid interaction. First of all, in the next 10 years, it is possible to form a golden combination of industries, namely "distributed photovoltaic + battery energy storage + electric vehicle vehicle-grid interaction + Internet of Things + blockchain".
In short, electric vehicles will form a huge energy Internet on the user side of the power system, linking the energy flows of our parking lots, smart buildings, parks, and highway fast charging and fast switching stations through cars, and bringing together to build a complementary smart energy system integrating light-storage-charging-switching. In addition, highways will be paved with photovoltaics to achieve the integration of light-storage-charging-switching, and make mining areas, ports, oil fields, etc. into smart energy systems. As my country's total photovoltaic installed capacity enters the 10 billion kilowatt era, batteries enter the 10 billion kilowatt-hour era, and electric vehicles enter the 100 million era, we can form a trillion-level smart energy industry. Therefore, the large ecology of this golden combination will form a larger 10 trillion-level industry.
These five super giant-level 10 trillion-level new energy industries will undoubtedly become a solid and reliable locomotive on the road to the future rapid development of my country's economy.